By: Nour Attalla & Aleksi Neuvonen
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocked the Western public and quickly sparked a furious debate about how to aid the Ukrainian cause. At the same time, it also highlighted the ongoing struggle between uniting to create a better future and unwillingness to make sacrifices in the short term.
Putin has made the bet that the West will not be willing to sacrifice its material comfort and economic stability to protect democracy on the continent. He sees Western European societies as short-sighted, individualistic, and unable to stand in solidarity for long-term societal gains.
The West has been supporting Ukraine with weapons and other forms of material aid in its battle. Still, the biggest actions Europe can take are by targeting Russia and its war chest directly, but these measures have the downside of strongly increasing the cost of living in European economies as well.
The war in Ukraine will determine the future of Europe’s security environment and democracy for decades to come, but short-termism has been preventing Western countries from taking the most decisive stops. This short-sightedness is not new, either, and makes it difficult to see how we will face the crucial 21st century challenges for which the dangers are not as immediate. The current crisis still provides major insights in what is preventing us from facing our most difficult issues, and how we might find collective solutions.
Impatience in producing agile and immediate results have infected politics and business on a significant scale. The looming pressure of elections every few years results in reactive politicians, more focused on quick fixes and competing with each other than collaborating to bring forth long-term change. In business, the responsibility of executives in public corporations for providing regular profits to their shareholders often leaves little room for long-term investments that may only pay off after their shareholders’ patience has run out.
The feverish pursuit of easy gains creates short-sighted solutions that do not strike at the heart of underlying issues or create long-term change or sustainability. Solving long-term challenges requires fundamental changes that go beyond the symptoms, and patchwork fixes simply do not bring this level of depth.
“Solving long-term challenges requires fundamental changes that go beyond the symptoms.”
Nour Attalla
Short-term solutions tend to be favoured, however, because long-term solutions involve a costly transition period, with discomfort, tension, and breakdown of the familiar. At the same time, their success is uncertain. Under these circumstances, few are willing to make the personal sacrifice and champion long-term thinking, but one of those few is mayor Anne Hidalgo of Paris. She was elected to office with her ambitious plan to make Paris Europe’s greenest city, whilst also making it more liveable. We cannot say whether Hidalgo will succeed, but we can already see the costly impact of the transition period on her political career. For now, the instability caused by her changes has made her one of France’s least popular mayors.
In a world where short-term inconvenience results in a disregarding of the long term challenges, it is easy to see why we have a political arena so starved of long-term thinking and leadership. Still, creating long-term change is not easy, because it needs two key factors: Firstly, there needs to be a strong and clear vision of why change is needed, and what the future will look like. Otherwise, there will be little patience from people when the reality of societal transformation starts to bite.
At the same time, there needs to be an acute understanding of how “tightening our belt” in a time of crisis or transformation does not affect everyone equally. The World Bank warned that the rapid energy and consumer goods price inflation caused by the instability and disruption from Covid-19 and the Russo-Ukrainian war may cause an inconvenience to middle and upper classes, but they will “wreak havoc on the world’s poor”.
The inevitable sacrifice in stepping away from old institutions, structures, and processes needs to be borne by societies collectively to ensure no group is left behind. Otherwise, we start to see massive bubbles of discontent against the transition. An optimistic, inclusive, and transformative vision – in other words, a cause to fight for – is crucial for generating solidarity. This brings people together and increases support for civic activity and government redistribution, allowing us to weather temporary hardships before long-term benefits become visible.
As the Ukraine crisis has showcased the strength and solidarity of Ukraine and the European public, Putin’s bet seems to be hanging in the balance. European leaders have expressed that they will not be paying for Russian gas in Roubles, despite an expected quality-of-life drop in the short term. Popular support for these measures has been strong, demonstrating the potential that a genuine goal has in generating solidarity and overcoming short-termism to find solutions to crucial challenges.
To ensure the momentum from the ongoing crisis is carried onto our long-term problems, we need to trust our capability to rally around long-term visions. At the same time, we need to remember that a better future can only be created collectively, by ensuring no-one bears the burden excessively.
The war in Ukraine is showing us that our necessary long-term transformations are possible, an that they will not be easy. Still, the fortitude of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people show how solidarity and faith provide us a fighting chance in the face of tough odds.
