By: Kalyan Wessendorp
The battle between internal combustion and electric
A hundred years ago, in the streets of New York City, two very different types of cars could be seen between the still-common horse-drawn carriages. On the one hand you had the familiar petrol cars of today, with their noisy, smoky internal combustion engines. These were epitomised by the Ford Model T, one of the world’s first affordable, mass-produced cars.
But did you know that, in the early 1900s, silent electric cars were also sharing these roads?
But why, despite their initial success, did electric cars disappear into obscurity? And what lessons can we learn from this for our quest for sustainable mobility today?
What happened to electric cars 100 years ago?
As the world was moving past primitive steam-engine cars, the rivalry between combustion-engine and electric cars first emerged.
Electric cars had the advantage of being quiet and clean, and starting immediately without needing to hand-crank the engine.
However, their limitations sound eerily similar to those of early electric cars in the 21st century. The advertised range of the Detroit Electric, a popular model, was only 130 kilometres, which was significantly lower than the 360 kilometres of its competitor, the Ford Model T.
Also, its top speed of 35 km/h was enough for city driving, but lagged behind its combustion engine competitors. But, what would ultimately prove to be the downfall of early electric cars was their price: A Detroit Electric cost about four times as much as the Model T, and the world was simply looking for the most affordable way of owning a car.
Coming back to the present, the situation is looking drastically different: Electric vehicle technology has rapidly caught up to the demands of 21st-century commuting: a 400 km drive can now be done in one stretch. And even the most affordable electric cars are able to exceed maximum highway speed limits. Most importantly, electric cars have become much more affordable, especially when government incentives and reduced fuel costs compared to combustion-engine cars are factored in.
So does that mean electric cars’ future is locked in?
As battery technology keeps improving, and current trends predict that hybrids and electric cars will account for roughly 60% of worldwide car sales by 2050, does that mean we’re on track to an electrified future?
Well, as new combustion engine cars are quite reliable, most cars on the road in 2050 may still be gasoline driven.
But, the EU is pushing back, and is aiming for 100% electric car sales by 2035, the only way to achieve fully electric roads in the coming decades. The ‘Fit for 55’ legislation proposal to reduce EU greenhouse gas emissions by 55% before 2030 has defined clear and realistic CO2 reduction targets, which will boost electric vehicle sales.
The American Inflation Reduction Act has also secured billions of dollars in electric vehicle subsidies, which, whilst lagging behind Europe, will also contribute to halving carbon emissions between 2005 and 2030.
As the EU and US continue to push electric cars, other countries will be forced to adapt and invest as well to keep up. China has been on the forefront of this investment, with a whopping 25% of new car sales being electric. This is even above the EU, where 15% of sales were electric in 2023. In fact, earlier this year, Chinese BYD (Build Your Dreams) surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest electric car manufacturer. In short, the momentum is increasing globally.
Still, with all the attention going to battery-electric cars, it is easy to overlook a potential alternative: hydrogen.
Hydrogen fuel-cell cars are already on the market, and they are faster to refuel and have a larger range compared to their battery-electric counterparts. Loud voices have been pointing at their high cost, low efficiency, and the need for new infrastructure to supply them.
But, hydrogen vehicles may find their niche in another market: commercial vehicles. Trucks and buses already need separate refuelling infrastructure, and the range and charging-speed benefits can generate big gains here. In fact, the German city of Frankfurt is already trialling hydrogen busses, which have a range of 400 kilometres, double that of battery-electric ones.
Ultimately, whether hydrogen vehicles will take over our roads is a question of government funding, as battery-electric cars had to overcome similar obstacles a decade ago. But perhaps, they will both find their unique roles, as diesel and petrol vehicles have in the past century.
The future
Returning to this article’s main question: We can be fairly certain that our future revolves around electric vehicles. Many of the existential obstacles they faced 100 years ago have been resolved by massive investment today, urged on by our tight climate targets.
But the question remains of how fast we will adopt them, and which electric vehicles will end up dominating. As is often the case, politics will be the deciding factor here.
